Price isn’t enough, promotions and re(in)novation are lifting the plane

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2025/12-2026.01

Erik Vágyi 
managing director
NielsenIQ

Confidence is improving only slowly and shopping baskets are disciplined. The NIQ consumer optimism index consists of three components: job prospects, financial situation and willingness to buy. After hitting a low point in 2023, the index has been on a steady upward trajectory this year. The improving mood isn’t accompanied by increased spending.

Regulated airspace

The 2025 margin freeze didn’t entail a price drop in itself. In the food category two clear examples illustrate the formula: cooking oil and UHT milk with 2.8% fat content remained on an upward price trajectory compared to the previous base, while volume responded modestly or very weakly. The contrast on the chemical goods market is sharp: paper products (diapers, toilet paper, kitchen towels) didn’t sell well, while body care products and liquid detergents started to sell. In the former case stagnant or barely changing prices didn’t trigger stockpiling, while in the latter case targeted price reductions and larger package sizes together created added value. The margin freeze also reshaped the promotional climate: the promotional share declined across all categories concerned.

Price & promotion

Price’s power doesn’t manifest the same way across all channels: hypermarkets proved to be the most price-sensitive, followed by discounters and supermarkets. Traditional stores are more restrained and the price effect is less pronounced at service stations. The airflow also differs by category: alcohol reacts quickly to a price signal, while household chemicals and beauty products behave much more moderately. In certain product categories – such as bread, milk, cooking oil or fruit juice – it is clear that although consumers respond strongly to promotional prices, the share of promotional sales is still below average. This suggests that in these product groups it may be a good idea to increase the depth or frequency of promotions in order to achieve more effective sales. On the other hand, in categories such as sunscreen products, skin care products or diapers, lower price-sensitivity can be observed, yet the proportion of promotional sales is high – so it may be advisable to reduce or optimise promotional activities. As regards re(in)novation: where sales from new products are growing, the chance of overall revenue growth doubles. One-fifth of the market is actively looking for new products, so it is worth keeping them visible.

NIQ-snapshot on the market: decreasing promo share, controlled baskets — growth is driven by well-timed promotion and re(in)novation

Landing direction

Erik Vágyi also outlined three directions that will be valid for the next period. Portfolio schedule, not price competition: it is worth defining the category roles for each channel: entry point (brings volume) vs. profit centre (maintains profit). Rewiring the promotion calendar: the optimal promotion strategy can be determined based on the category map, as a relationship between promotion-sensitivity and promotional price. Rapid re(in)novation, small-scale and focused: targeted updates to existing products can bring quick results. All in all, the winner is where channel-specific pricing, reasonably used promotions and rapid re(in)novation come together in a portfolio