World market outlook: grain market forecast 2024 October

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The wheat harvest is estimated at 792.9 million tons, which represents an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous month. The increase can be explained by the improvement of the prospects in Australia, I believe that the favorable weather conditions in the western part of the continent improved the yield average. The excessive growth is offset by the production forecast of the European Union, where the crop averages are lower than expected due to excessive rainfall. The forecast for corn production has decreased in the European Union, but in the United States it has increased due to favorable conditions throughout the vegetation, according to the latest surveys. With regard to rice, the recurring flood has had a negative effect on yields in many rice-producing countries, but the decrease is moderated by the expected record harvest in India.

Estimated cereal use increased by 12.4 million tons compared to the previous year, while the forecast for wheat use increased to 793.7 million tons

Based on the estimates, the use of wheat in the food industry increased, while its use for animal feed and other purposes decreased. The expected use of corn and sorghum increased compared to September, which can also be observed in the case of rice. This can be explained primarily by India’s improved supply outlook, but the state’s rice reserves released for ethanol production also play a role.

The forecast for grain stocks fell by 1.7 million tonnes compared to September, but is still 10.5 million tonnes higher than at the beginning of the year

Estimated stocks are almost unchanged compared to last year (30.6%), which indicates adequate supply prospects. Wheat stocks are expected to rise to 316.2 million tonnes, mainly due to Australian and Ukrainian stock estimates. However, a decrease in corn and barley stocks is expected, which was primarily caused by lower production averages in the European Union. The rice stock forecast increased by 1.82 million tons compared to September.

World trade in cereals increased by 2.5 million tonnes, but still represents a 2.7% decrease compared to the previous year

According to the forecast, world trade in wheat decreased by 4.1% (8.6 million tons) compared to last year and is 1 million tons short of the September estimate. This is mainly due to the lower export estimate of the European Union and Egypt. On the other hand, an increase in corn trade is expected due to the increase in import demands of the European Union and the increase in Brazilian exports. Demand for barley and sorghum also increased, mainly due to China’s export needs, which are expected to be covered by crops in Australia and the United States. Rice trade decreased, but is expected to increase next year due to increased imports from Middle Eastern and African countries.

NAK/FAO