Extremes in the price of corn: uncertainty remains high

By: STA Date: 2023. 11. 13. 09:15

2023 will be a very memorable year for Hungarian farmers. In one year, the facts and hopes went through heaven and hell. The weather anomalies resulting from climate change and the economic and political effects of the global world have not escaped Hungary either, creating unprecedented uncertainty and an extreme farming environment for agricultural producers. The results of this also appeared in corn cultivation.

The situation of Hungarian farmers has been influenced by many factors in the recent past. It is enough to highlight only two: the weather and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The weather determined the quantitative result of the production, and the effects of the war determined the price and demand of the produced goods. The weather cannot be influenced, farms try to adapt to it. The changing and unpredictable economic environment, on the other hand, can lift up or destroy farmers, even in a short period of time. These factors were also prominent in corn production.

These farmers could do well in 2022

In 2022, the market price of corn soared to record heights. It could be sold at HUF 130,000 per ton or even higher. Market news suggested that it would be even more. In addition, the price of fertilizers started to rise drastically by autumn. Even 4-5 times, compared to a year ago. And the news predicted a further increase in this area as well, and shortages were also not inconceivable. After that, however, there was a turning point. – The one who sold his corn at a price of HUF 130,000 per ton with good sense or “forced-unnecessary” could have done well, but he didn’t have the money to buy the HUF 400,000 fertilizer. On the other hand, the one who did not sell it at such a price, trusting in the higher selling price, and who also invested in fertilizer at a high price, was not lucky. – said László Nagy, commercial manager of Vitafer Hungária Kft., who added that no one thought that the price of fertilizer would drop drastically, and at the same time, unfortunately, crop prices and demand would also hit rock bottom. This only became clear afterwards and basically determined the management of the year 2023.

2023 is also a special year for corn production

In Hungary in 2023, the sown area was approximately 800,000 hectares. This can be said to be very little even compared to the downward trend of recent years. – The reason for this is that the poor crop results shifted the crop rotation in the direction of corn and sunflower. The effectiveness of corn production, similar to other crops, cannot be defined according to one scheme this year, or even similar. – emphasized the commercial manager of Vitafer Hungária Kft. In 2023, the weather and the resulting crop results played a smaller but not negligible role. In contrast, the cost of input materials and the sales prices of manufactured goods were more important. It is a great luck that in 2023 the cost of drying is minimal, and the toxin infection of the corn was not typical either.

What can be expected in 2024?

No one can or dares to outline an exact vision of the future. The mood of farmers is often very pessimistic, not infrequently they are definitely afraid of 2024. It is expected that they will save as much as possible! – Next year, I think most of the input prices will not or barely change downwards. Fertilizer is an exception to this, where there is currently an order of magnitude decrease compared to last year’s price level. It is expected that the investments that can be postponed will have to be postponed, and the costs will have to be adjusted to the endowments and financial possibilities. Unfortunately, this will mean that the producers will economize on the plant, risking the amount of the crop, trusting in the mercy of the weather. – emphasized László Nagy, commercial manager of Vitafer Hungária Kft., adding that relying solely on the weather can be a big risk.

In order to reduce the risk, the use and importance of foliar fertilizers may come to the fore again

In the case of applying nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium through foliar fertilization, the active ingredient can be absorbed directly through the leaves of the plant. We know that the effectiveness of basic fertilizers is only partially replaced by the use of foliar fertilizers, but it can significantly support the health and proper development of the plant, at a much lower cost level. It is also important to ask for expert advice before making a purchase, to find out about the most ideal solutions.