Optimists are the minority

Date: 2012. 11. 08. 23:48

For the first time in the history of the Business Days conference we asked participants to answer questions about macroeconomic issues. They could use a practical handheld device to cast their votes, choosing from the options given by the presenters who asked the questions. The answers were not surprising and they showed very well what participants think about our present and future.

I must add that more than 450 registered conference guests had the opportunity to cast their votes, all of whom have an influential opinion about the market as the majority of them are manufacturers, retailers or service providers in the FMCG sector. In the following let me share a few of the survey’s results with you. Retail sales: only 10 percent of those present forecasted a growth, the majority, about 61 percent expected lower sales. Even worse news is that 53 percent of those who cast their votes said that next year’s performance would not be any better than this year’s, and every 4th participant was even more pessimistic. Two thirds of conference guests in the room said this year’s food inflation will be at least 2-3 percent higher than the general inflation level. Consequently, they were not hopeful about growth either: every second participant said growth would not occur before 2014 and 39 percent named 2015. However, just as many of them wanted to believe that the Christmas period would improve this year’s results a bit. Two thirds of those who answered the questions are not satisfied with the steps the world’s governments have taken to manage the crisis; 70 percent of the FMCG decision-makers in the room were of the opinion that Hungary’s government only deepened the crisis with its measures. Based on these views 84 percent opined that our GDP would not grow in 2013, what is more, it would produce negative growth. To close my lines on a positive note, I repeat what makes György Jaksity, the president of Concorde hopeful about the future: world economy is growing and every economy’s goal is to achieve a balance. If we leave our economy alone and do not intervene, it will reach this balance faster but if we intervene, the process will be slower… We are a bit less optimistic now as the autumn begins but we are already preparing for Christmas, when things will hopefully start to go in the right direction – without intervention…

Best regards,

Zsuzsanna Hermann, Editor in Chief