GKI forecast: inflation speeding up, domestic use slowing down

Attila Udvardi
head of research
GKI

At a press conference held on 27 March, GKI presented its first economic forecast for 2019. GKI foresees a 3.5-percent ecomomic growth, which will be generated by domestic use – for the third year in a row. They expect an increase in the inflation rate and the worsening of the external balance.

GKI president András Vértes stressed: the period of accelerating growth is over in Hungary, but rapid growth will stay with us this year. The more difficult economic and political situation in the world has an impact on Hungary too. Retail sales were up 6 percent in 2018, but the growth rate kept getting smaller quarter by quarter. In 2019 the growth rate of real wages decreased too, due to which retail sales also expanded slower, by 4 percent. A survey by GKI Digital has found that by the end of 2019 online retail will make up for 5 percent of the total retail sector. GKI forecasts a 3.2-percent increase in inflation for 2019.

Deputy CEO Gábor Karsai told: the 4.5-percent food price growth is no big change from the previous year, but the 4.5-percent increase in motor fuel prices is a bit higher inflation rate than in 2018. //