Companies’ recruitment plans predict a gradual economic recovery

ManpowerGroup conducted its quarterly survey among nearly 40,000 employers in 41 countries around the world, in which a representative sample of 525 employers in Hungary were asked about their hiring intentions for the first quarter of 2026.

The Net Employment Outlook (NEO), derived from the difference in the number of companies forecasting an increase or decrease in headcount, and then adjusted for seasonal effects It reached an average value of +11 percent, which is 2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter’s value and 7 percentage points higher than the indicator from half a year ago. All this points to the gradually increasing optimism of domestic companies.

“Analysts’ forecasts are already counting on a 2-3 percent GDP growth for 2026, and the recently revealed, cautiously optimistic expectations of companies also predict a slow start to growth

– said Péter Varga, Managing Director of Manpower Hungary.

Although the majority of companies are already preparing for the revival of their markets, this trend is not yet uniform. The manufacturing and trade and logistics sectors, which employ a significant workforce, are currently expecting slightly below-average hiring, while companies operating in the automotive industry are expecting a stagnant workforce. next quarter as well.”

Among the sectors, the largest headcount increase is expected in the hospitality (NFM: +34%), utilities and natural resources (+31%), and finance and insurance (+19%) sectors, which are starting from a low base – in the latter case, the launch of new preferential loan programs may have also had a positive impact on expansion plans. In addition to the aforementioned manufacturing (+10%) and trade and logistics (+8%), companies in construction and real estate (+9%), information (+8%), Technology and IT (+7%), and public utilities, health and social services (+7%) are also expecting growth approaching the average. The automotive industry (0%) is stagnating, and a trend of staff reductions is emerging in the field of professional, scientific and technical services (-7%).

The 11 percent staff expansion indicator is an average value, with significant differences between the individual regions of the country. Employers’ expectations are above average in Central Hungary (NFM: +30%), the Northern Great Plain (+24%), Northern Hungary (+22%), Central Transdanubia (+17%), and the Southern Great Plain (+16%). The number of employees in Budapest (+4%) is growing below average, while stagnation is expected in Southern Transdanubia (-1%) and a slight decrease in the number of employees may occur overall in Western Transdanubia (-6%).

Based on company size, there is an intention to increase the number of employees in all categories, but while SMEs with 10-249 employees plan to expand above average (NFM: 17-18%), microenterprises and companies operating in the large enterprise categories with more than 250 employees are calculating a significantly below average increase in the number of employees.

Compared to the previous quarter, the outlook for labor market movements in the international arena is almost unchanged. The indicator is still very high at 24 percent, which is only 1 percentage point higher than the previous quarter’s level. No significant decline is expected in any of the 41 countries examined, but among the neighboring countries, Slovakia (-3%) and Romania (0%), while the labor market of Hong Kong (+1%) is also missing out on the expansion. In Europe (+19%), the expectation is somewhat lower than the world average, with the largest workforce expansion plans in the old continent in the Netherlands (+36%), Ireland (+31%), and Sweden (+30%). Outside of Europe, employers expect the largest increase in staff numbers primarily in Brazil (NFM: +54%), India (52%), and the United Arab Emirates (+46%).