Fear and security

Recently we have been hearing these two concepts juxtaposed from more and more angles at a growing number of events. From the point of view of consumers and their purchasing decisions, as well as from the point of view of business leaders.

Of course, you can nuance fear and call it worrying, but it doesn’t change the point, because the level of intensity of the gut feeling influences our thinking and actions, and trying to get rid of this feeling makes us trying to find what is safe and secure.

The numerous economic challenges and crises of recent years have left their mark on the choices we make today. While business leaders see an upward trajectory for this year, they are still divided on the exact quarter in which this will happen, leaving more plans on the table in 2024.

We shouldn’t think that everything will magically fall into place, that there will be no price rises or inflation, but that there will be sufficient quality and quantity of workforce and purchasing power, and that one morning the good old New World will dawn. But it is revealing that the PwC CEO survey shows: business leaders expect a GDP growth of 1.7%, 8% inflation and 394 HUF/EUR for 2024. In Hungary 47% of them calculate with growth in their own companies this year, compared to 37% globally. Still, the common bogeyman – just like for consumers – remains inflation. Although inflation expectations of varying degrees have been published in many places in recent days, the January inflation has already dropped to 3.8%.

Despite this fact, according to NRC research 36% of the public still said inflation was their biggest fear for the same month.

As we heard at this year’s Trade Marketing Club conference, no matter what the circumstances are, purchasing decisions are 70% emotional and only 30% rational. So although inflation is no longer a factor in terms of numbers, fear of further crises can still hold back spending even where the financial conditions are right.

But we should be confident that this situation is coming to an end and that in 2024, quarter by quarter, consumption, corporate performance and – with it the economy – will continue to strengthen.

We are going to keep monitoring these positive efforts in the FMCG market. Let’s start with SIRHA Budapest in early March. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the Future Store stand and at the Start-up Island, with successful innovations and future-oriented developments. Read more in the following columns and at trademagazin.hu.

Best regards,

Zsuzsanna Hermann, Editor in Chief