Resilience, refinancing and recession risk – this is expected in the fourth quarter

By: Trademagazin Date: 2023. 10. 13. 12:22

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Markets have so far proved resilient to the prospect of a recession, but whether this will continue to be the case is far from certain. The last quarter of the year is usually a good indication of what to expect in the future – based on this, Fidelity outlines three themes that will define the markets on the threshold of 2024.

Inflation decreased during the third quarter, but we must take into account that the picture behind the headline data is much more nuanced. Some signs indicate that the effect of the tightening of monetary policy is not taking effect in the real economy as quickly as the central banks had expected. For example, quite a few companies are already receiving interest income from their money placed in the deposit, but (since they have entered into a multi-year contract) they are not yet paying more for their loans taken out at ultra-low interest rates during the epidemic. Fidelity’s experts believe that the transmission mechanism is rather delayed, but not derailed, and the situation could turn around quickly, especially if companies start refinancing their loans next year.

Fidelity analysts, meanwhile, expect modest price increases overall over the next six months, citing supply chain pressures in some sectors such as industrials and telecoms. So far, the Fed has not found a solution to the problem of inflation.