A decrease in Ukrainian grain production and export is expected
From the point of view of Hungarian agriculture, information on the situation of crop production in Ukraine is crucial, given the possibility of duty-free export of Ukrainian crops to the European Union.
![búza](https://trademagazin.cdn.webgarden.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pexels-pixabay-54084-1-300x199.jpg)
(Photo: Pixabay)
Since April 19, grain and oilseeds from Ukraine have not been allowed to arrive in our country due to the import ban ordered under the national authority, and in addition, in 2023, our eastern neighbor can expect a decrease in harvest results. The domestic supply is also fully ensured through Hungarian products. The Ministry of Agriculture reviewed data from the International Grains Council and the European Commission, based on which we can count on declining Ukrainian harvest results in 2023 and a declining export performance for the 2023/24 economic year. The harvest results of the year 2023 in Ukraine will fall short of the level of previous years, primarily due to the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war. As a result, Ukraine’s exportable goods base also decreased compared to previous years. The Ukrainian wheat harvest in 2023 reached a level of 23 million tons, which is approx. It represents a drop of 24%. The same data for corn shows a 30% drop, the Ukrainian corn crop in 2023 may be around 24 million tons.
The drop in yields is less severe for oil crops and affects each plant species differently, but the impact of the war is felt in these crops as well
The latest estimates of all grain, oil and protein crops that can be exported by Ukraine predict an export of 46-47 million tons for the economic year 2023/24. This amount is still significant, but perceptible – approx. by 28% – it falls short of the usual pre-war levels of 65 million tons. The actual export potential is influenced by the operational efficiency of the Ukrainian and related Romanian sea port capacities on the Danube, and the effectiveness and speed of European efforts to expand the capacity of the land transit corridor. It should also be taken into account that EU imports of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine peaked between September 2022 and May 2023 – the monthly volume of which reached 2.5-4 million tons – after May 2023, 1.6-1.6 It dropped to 7 million tons. Behind the huge volumes, the trapped stocks from the 2021 Ukrainian crop accumulated in the previous period due to the outbreak of the war also played a significant role. Another factor influencing the development of future Ukrainian exports is the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia, which, after the shocks following the outbreak of the war, was quite stable in 2023 and even managed to strengthen somewhat against the main currencies. The stable or strengthening hryvnia may put a brake on Ukrainian exports in the next period.
AM
Related news
In 2023, the animals were fed mainly with fermented and fibrous bulk feed
In Hungary, 7,598,000 tons (100 percent coverage) of fodder were…
Read more >The agricultural council must show the main directions of the agricultural policy after 2027
The aim of the six-month Hungarian presidency of the Council…
Read more >Fresh Hungarian sweet corn is delicious both baked and boiled
Sweet corn is one of the hit vegetables of the…
Read more >Related news
Large companies are resistant to economic uncertainty
Restrained expectations characterize the domestic corporate sector for the next…
Read more >Company trend in 2024: a more positive half-year, but still a negative message
The lowest number of companies in the last five years…
Read more >The Hungarian Marketing Association for the supply of the profession
The Hungarian Marketing Association is actively working for the future…
Read more >