A decrease in Ukrainian grain production and export is expected

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Since April 19, grain and oilseeds from Ukraine have not been allowed to arrive in our country due to the import ban ordered under the national authority, and in addition, in 2023, our eastern neighbor can expect a decrease in harvest results. The domestic supply is also fully ensured through Hungarian products. The Ministry of Agriculture reviewed data from the International Grains Council and the European Commission, based on which we can count on declining Ukrainian harvest results in 2023 and a declining export performance for the 2023/24 economic year. The harvest results of the year 2023 in Ukraine will fall short of the level of previous years, primarily due to the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war. As a result, Ukraine’s exportable goods base also decreased compared to previous years. The Ukrainian wheat harvest in 2023 reached a level of 23 million tons, which is approx. It represents a drop of 24%. The same data for corn shows a 30% drop, the Ukrainian corn crop in 2023 may be around 24 million tons.

The drop in yields is less severe for oil crops and affects each plant species differently, but the impact of the war is felt in these crops as well

The latest estimates of all grain, oil and protein crops that can be exported by Ukraine predict an export of 46-47 million tons for the economic year 2023/24. This amount is still significant, but perceptible – approx. by 28% – it falls short of the usual pre-war levels of 65 million tons. The actual export potential is influenced by the operational efficiency of the Ukrainian and related Romanian sea port capacities on the Danube, and the effectiveness and speed of European efforts to expand the capacity of the land transit corridor. It should also be taken into account that EU imports of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine peaked between September 2022 and May 2023 – the monthly volume of which reached 2.5-4 million tons – after May 2023, 1.6-1.6 It dropped to 7 million tons. Behind the huge volumes, the trapped stocks from the 2021 Ukrainian crop accumulated in the previous period due to the outbreak of the war also played a significant role. Another factor influencing the development of future Ukrainian exports is the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia, which, after the shocks following the outbreak of the war, was quite stable in 2023 and even managed to strengthen somewhat against the main currencies. The stable or strengthening hryvnia may put a brake on Ukrainian exports in the next period.

AM