Economic growth in Hungary only in H2

According to a GKI 's forecast elaborated in co-operation with Erste Bank Hungary's economy will eventually get out of the slump it fell into in 2007.

Following a huge downturn in 2007,
economic growth will pick up tangibly in 2008, but its level will
still greatly lag behind the growth rate of EU member states that
joined the bloc together with Hungary, the GKI said.
Exports will
remain one of the engines of economic growth this year, but the
momentum of export growth will diminish due to the worsening European
business environment and bad crops last year.
Meanwhile the
growth rate of imports will hardly slow down.
The researcher sees
annual average inflation retreating from 8.0% yr/yr in 2007 to around
6% this year and projects December's yr/yr CPI to come in at around
4.5% (vs. 7.4% in Dec 07 and 7.1% in Jan 08).
The central bank
announced on 25 February the abandoning of the forint's
30-percent-wide fluctuation band against the euro (with effect from
26 Feb). The GKI sees annual average EUR/HUF at 253 this year.
Wage
growth will decrease in nominal terms in 2008, with gross wages
likely to go up by 8% in the private sector and 7% in the public
sector, the GKI projected. It expects real wages to rise by 0.5-1.0%
in the whole economy, but stagnate in the public sector.
Real
wages dropped 4.7% yr/yr in January-November 2007. The fresh data
imply that the yr/yr average decline of real wages may come in below
5% yr/yr.