VOSZ Barometer – 2024. II. quarter: mandatory optimism or real growth?

By: Trademagazin Date: 2024. 07. 16. 13:47

The perception of inflation is still present in domestic companies, while the labor market mood seems to be permanent, and perhaps investments will also return to the level of a year ago – this was said, among other things, about the second quarter data of the business mood index of the National Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers (VOSZ).

As a professional partner of VOSZ, the Equilibrium Institute has been continuously researching the business mood, state, and development goals of domestic enterprises for a year and a half. At the quarterly press conferences presenting the research results, the Director of the Institute emphasizes every time that the numbers should be interpreted in the way that the answers are given by the VOSZ member companies, whose operation is significantly more stable from a financial point of view.

“What is clearly visible from the data is that there is still no tension on the labor market, companies are not planning layoffs, while a double-digit wage increase can be forecast. According to the measurements of the Equilibrium Institute, inflation is expected to be around 4.5-4.6 percent this year, and 3.1 percent next year. Regarding the GDP, the Institute predicts 2.4 percent for 2024, and 3.1 percent next year. The exchange rate of the euro is expected to be in the HUF 395-400 range. The change in the median wage is 12.1 percent, but due to inflation of more than 4 percent, the real wage increase is expected to be 7.1 percent. Household consumption may increase by 2.7 percent this year, and it is good news that, after last year’s decrease, investments are roughly 4 can increase by percent”

– Ákos Kozák, co-founder of the Equilibrium Institute and director responsible for business relations, presented the expected most important macroeconomic data for this year.