The rise in food prices has fallen, and no significant increase in prices is expected until the end of the year

The annual increase was largely influenced by the end of mandatory sales, while the increase in the purchase price of milk and the price of seasonal products, such as potatoes, fresh vegetables and fruit, played a role in the monthly price increase. In the past month, the prices of flour, dairy products and seasonal products have risen in particular. For example, flour rose in price by nearly 40% annually, mainly due to the removal of the price cap and the end of sales. The purchase price of milk also increased, which was also reflected in consumer prices. The milk market has been characterized by a continuous price increase since August, in September the purchase price increased by 4% on a monthly basis and by 10-13% on an annual basis. Due to the weak crop yield in Europe, the prices of fruits and vegetables also increased, especially in the case of fruits, the increase in price was significant, which also affected the market supply, reports Világgazdaság.

Pork and other staple foods: more stable prices by the end of the year

At the same time, no significant price increase is expected on the pork market, and meat and meat products are still available in stores at last year’s price levels. According to Tamás Éder, president of the Hungarian Meat Industry Association, there are no factors on the pork market that could cause a significant price increase. Market prices normalized for products with a price cap and after the end of mandatory promotions, so the situation remained stable in this area. The exchange rate of the forint may have an effect on prices, but a significant rise in prices is only forecast for January, should a significant weakening of the forint occur.

Christmas menu: no price increase is expected during the festive period

According to Dávid Hollósi, head of MBH Bank’s agricultural and food industry business, this year’s Christmas holiday menu will not be more expensive than last year’s. Due to stagnant demand and stability on the supplier side, production costs did not increase significantly, so prices are expected to remain unchanged during the festive period. At the same time, the MBH AgrárTrend Index shows that the sector’s general performance and consumer demand still do not show rapid growth, which may also contribute to price stability.

Future outlook: what to expect in terms of food prices?

According to Zoltán Fórián, the leading agricultural expert of the Erste Agrár Kompetencia Központ, the development of food prices is significantly influenced by weather extremes, which affect the world’s food production. After the dramatic price increases experienced in the last two years, the curve is now moving towards falling prices. Although the prices of flour, dairy products and seasonal products continue to fluctuate, analysts believe that the current market environment does not warrant further significant price increases. Domestic food retailing is stagnant, and there is no significant cost increase on the part of the suppliers either.

Experts expect that there will be no significant price increase at the beginning of 2024, unless there is a significant economic or financial change. Smaller fluctuations compared to the previous year may occur for some products, especially for agricultural products with poor yields due to the drought. Although general inflationary fears are still present, prices on the Hungarian food market are expected to consolidate, especially after the festive period.