A weaker year in terms of yield, but an acceptable year in terms of quality: walnut market outlook 2025

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The harvest of early and traditional walnut varieties in 2025, similar to previous years, began in the first and second weeks of September, and the work was completed by mid-October. Although the timing proved to be optimal, the results were less than optimal: a weak average harvest was formed nationwide. The quantitative decline this year is primarily due to the weather. Spring frosts and prolonged drought caused significant damage in several regions, and the differences between plantations were clearly visible.

The frosty spring tore the country in two

The frost wave in early April (7–8) only moderately affected walnuts, as this fruit species sprouts and blooms late. The real problem was caused by the cold front on May 10, which left serious damage, especially in the northeastern part of the country – where about half of the domestic walnut plantations are located. In these regions, especially in the early-maturing varieties, significant crop losses were recorded, and in some plantations even complete failure. On the other hand, walnut producers in Transdanubia were in a more favorable situation: the region avoided the May frosts, so yields there were relatively more favorable. The difference between the two parts of the country became one of the most striking features of this year.

Drought and hail: new blows to weakening plantations

Following the frosts, the long dry period from April to the end of June further worsened crop yields. The extensive plantations, which are not irrigated, suffered in particular from the lack of rainfall – they account for a significant part of the domestic walnut production. In Transdanubia, slightly more favorable rainfall conditions helped the plants, but even this was not enough to avoid a weak average yield at the national level. Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county, the largest walnut-growing region in the country, suffered particularly from the weather: due to spring frosts, the yield reached only 30–50% of the usual amount. The situation was further aggravated by the early summer hailstorm, which arrived in the early stages of the formation of the stone shell, so that most of the nuts fell. Many of the kernels remaining on the tree showed dark discoloration, which also reduced their marketability.

However, the picture is favorable in terms of quality

Although the size of the walnuts became somewhat smaller due to the prolonged drought, this did not have a significant impact on the quality indicators. The browning of the walnut kernels experienced in several places last year occurred sporadically this year, so the quality of this year’s walnuts can be said to be adequate overall. The color and texture of the walnut kernels are mostly good, and there were no widespread quality problems in the batches intended for processing.

European overview: decreasing yield, increasing prices

Not only in Hungary, but also in several European countries, lower yields have been forecast for 2025. A weaker yield is also expected in France and Greece, which predicts a price increase at the regional level. The net producer price of raw, shelled walnuts this year ranged between 600–1,000 HUF/kg, depending on the quality, and typically ranged around 700–800 HUF/kg. Consumer prices have also risen: the price of walnut kernels varies between 3,000 and 5,000 HUF/kg, depending on whether they are whole (halved) or broken walnuts. This represents a moderate but noticeable increase compared to last year. The price increase is partly a consequence of the weak domestic harvest and partly a consequence of the general decline in the European walnut supply.

Imported walnuts will also be needed

Satisfying the domestic walnut demand this year is a greater challenge than usual. According to experts, it may be necessary to import imported walnuts earlier than usual – even at the end of the year – in order to satisfy domestic demand. This may become important primarily before the Christmas period, when demand for walnuts traditionally surges, especially in the confectionery and sweet industry. The 2025 walnut harvest was weaker in quantity but acceptable in quality. Of the two main growing regions of the country, Transdanubia ended the season in a more favorable position, while spring frost and hail caused serious losses in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg. Based on the market outlook, walnut prices may remain stable, but foreign imports will be necessary to meet demand. However, the quality of the walnut kernel is not a cause for concern: Hungarian walnuts will continue to maintain their good reputation, even if less of them reach the market this year.

FruitVeb