Coffee prices at an all-time high

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 01. 14. 13:16

In early December 2024, the price of coffee on the international market rose to a record high. Arabica coffee beans, which account for the largest share of world production, exceeded $3.44 per pound (about 0.45 kg) on the New York Stock Exchange. This represents an increase of more than 80% year-on-year. The price of robusta coffee reached its historic peak in September. The question is: will coffee consumption become a luxury in the future?

What is causing the price increase?

There are several factors behind the price explosion. Weather conditions are primarily to blame: Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee producers, have struggled with extreme weather in recent years. Drought, drought, heavy rains and frosts have devastated the crop. The El Niño phenomenon has also had a significant impact, causing flash floods and longer periods of drought in the Caribbean, Central America and Asia.

In addition, global demand for coffee has exceeded supply for several years. In particular, coffee consumption in Asia, especially in China, is increasing dynamically, which could have a lasting price-push effect on the market. In addition to climate change, coffee rust and coffee leaf spot are also significantly reducing crop yields. In addition, socio-economic problems in coffee-producing regions (e.g. Brazil and Colombia) also hinder stable production.

Impacts on Hungary

Hungarian coffee consumption is entirely imported, so price increases on the world market directly affect the domestic market. Coffee prices are further influenced by the development of the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint against the dollar and by transport costs. Currently, a 200-250 gram package of ground coffee costs around 1,500 forints on average, which represents an 18% increase in price per year.

The price increase can also be seen in restaurants: the average price of an espresso is around 550 forints, which represents a 9% increase compared to the previous year. However, in European comparison, Hungarian coffee prices are still favorable.