Shortened season, less weekday spending to impact holiday sales

That’s according to Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) new 2024 Holiday Outlook Survey, which found that just over a quarter of consumers (28%) plan to spend more than they did last year. Nearly the same amount (27%) plan to spend less, while just under half (45%) of those surveyed plan to spend the same.

BCG says that a multitude of factors will impact holiday spending, including a shortened holiday season as well as the upcoming presidential election, which is expected to fragment consumers’ attention.

Last year, over 50% of holiday shopping was completed before Thanksgiving. The peak holiday period (after Cyber Monday through Christmas Eve), however, was still the busiest with 36% of shopping. This year, a late Thanksgiving leaves only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, which is five fewer shopping days compared to last year. Hanukkah is also later relative to 2023.

BCG noted that one trend to emerge since the COVID-19 pandemic was a major acceleration in weekday holiday shopping, growing 4-5% annually since 2019, which ultimately led to weekdays overtaking weekends in daily spending. This trend saw a reversal last year during the 2023 holiday shopping season, during which things seemed to return to “normal” with weekday spending dropping slightly below Saturday and Sunday levels. BCG’s research says that weekend shopping trips are expected to continue through the 2024 holiday season.

E-commerce has continued to grow, and the prominence of online channels is 1.4-times higher during weekdays, which BCG says raises the stakes for digital experiences Monday through Friday. With online shopping comprising 40% of weekday shopping, e-commerce could exceed 50% of weekday spending in the next two to four shopping seasons.

“The 2024 holiday season in the U.S. will accelerate quickly, right out of the gate,” said BCG. “With hilly, twisty terrain ahead across a compressed peak-season calendar and election-related distractions, it’s important to be ready with speed and agility alike. With the right approach, retailers can look forward to a season of cheer, despite a moderate growth outlook for U.S. consumers’ holiday spending.”

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