A record wheat harvest is expected

By: STA Date: 2024. 05. 14. 09:30

In the May forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2024/2025 wheat harvest was published for the first time global harvest expectations for the economic year, in which a record harvest of 798 million tons (+1 percent) is indicated. In both China and India, the harvest may increase by 3.4 million tons, to an unprecedented level (to 140 and 114 million tons, respectively), mainly thanks to government support programs.

(Photo: Pixabay)

High wheat prices in Pakistan will result in higher acreage, so output could increase by 1.8 million tons to 30 million tons. A wheat harvest of 34 million tons (+6 percent) is expected in Canada, and almost 51 million tons (+2.5 percent) in the United States. Growers in the Southern Hemisphere have only recently started planting, but initial prospects are also good in Australia, Argentina and Brazil. On the other hand, in the European Union, due to the high rainfall, less wheat was sown last fall, which may result in a smaller harvest (132 million tons). In Russia, yields are expected to be lower, which could reduce the crop by 3.5 million tonnes (to 88 million tonnes).

According to forecasts, Ukraine may harvest the smallest wheat crop (21 million tons) since 2012/2013

Global use is expected to be 802 million tonnes (+2 million tonnes), as higher food, seed and industrial use somewhat offsets lower feed and other use. 215 million tons (-2 percent) of wheat may be traded, Egypt may be the world’s largest wheat importer and Russia its exporter in 2024/2025. financial year. Closing stocks are forecast to fall by almost 2 percent to 254 million tonnes by the end of the season. In Hungary, according to AKI PÁIR data, edible wheat was traded at an average producer price of HUF 65.9 thousand per ton without VAT and transport costs in the first week of May. This price level was 17 percent lower than a year earlier. Feed wheat changed hands at the producer price of HUF 63.9 thousand/ton (-18 percent) at the same time.

AKI PÁIR