Not greener, smarter: McKinsey’s new map of green packaging

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2025/11.

McKinsey claims that previous approaches based primarily on recycling are no longer sufficient on their own. The market is now more complex, shaped by multiple, conflicting logics: cost pressures, regulations and consumer preferences compete for the attention of decision-makers. McKinsey says there is no packaging material that offers advantages in all aspects of sustainability: the right choice always depends on the area of use, the region and the specific consumer expectations.

Sometimes, even within a single product portfolio, a combination of paper, glass, aluminum, and bioplastics is required

Consumers are less enthusiastic – but they still are

The importance of sustainability considerations increased between 2020 and 2023, but after 2023 stagnation and in certain areas decline can be observed. 40-70% of consumers are willing to pay slightly more for environmentally friendly packaging, but the proportion of those willing to pay significantly more is small and hasn’t reached the 2020 levels. In recent years most FMCG and retail players have focused on quick, cost-cutting solutions – material and weight reduction, simplification, etc.

However, five barriers stand in the way of a true systemic breakthrough:

1. Cost – sustainable materials are more expensive.

2. Performance – alternative materials often provide weaker protection and shorter shelf life.

3. Supply – the supply of environmentally friendly raw materials is limited and not always stable.

4. Lack of knowledge – decision-makers are often unaware of the latest technological possibilities. 5. Lack of coordination and transparency – communication between players in the chain is fragmented.

Packaging on a new path: e-commerce, health consciousness and AI

In addition to regulatory uncertainty and consumer contradictions, new megatrends are also influencing the industry. These trends are redefining not only consumer expectations, but also the scope of packaging industry strategies, as packaging innovation isn’t exclusively driven by sustainability considerations. The e-commerce boom, price-sensitivity, health consciousness and generative AI are all transforming packaging needs. According to McKinsey, competition in sustainable packaging isn’t about materials, but about the quality of decisions. The analysis is based on consumer data from more than 11 countries and a regulatory map of 30 countries: based on this, success depends on who can adapt sustainability to market realities.

The four green pillars of the strategy

McKinsey’s research has found: companies that manage packaging development in a structured, measurable and collaborative system become sustainability leaders. The study highlights four practical pillars.

1. The innovation and technology roadmap: successful companies maintain a continuous development pipeline.

2. The commercial and communication strategy: the value of sustainable packaging should be measured not in terms of unit price, but the total cost of the supply chain.

3. Ecosystem-based partnerships: successful packaging industry players launch joint innovation programs not only with their suppliers, but also with retailers and waste management companies.

4. The incremental approach: a series of small steps is more effective than redesigning the entire system.