Márton Nagy: Retail turnover growth is currently in the 4-5 percent range

He highlighted that there is no significant difference in the main macroeconomic indicators between the ministry’s and the central bank’s forecasts, and the central bank’s forecast took into account the middle of the range.

On an annual average, the Ministry of National Economy (NGM) expects growth of 2.5 percent in 2025, 4.1 percent next year, 3.9 percent in 2027, and then 4.1 percent GDP growth in 2028 and 2029. According to the minister, the strong expansion of consumption will dominate GDP this year. This is supported by real wage growth, the margin freeze, the doubling of the family tax credit, and the personal income tax exemption for families with three children, which will come into effect in October – he explained.

The expansion of retail turnover is currently in the 4-5 percent range, and according to the ministry, it will rise to the 5-10 percent range in the third and fourth quarters. Large investments that will start production in the near future will also contribute significantly to GDP growth – the minister listed.

He mentioned that the reform of the German debt brake could increase German GDP by up to nearly 1 percentage point this year, and the financing of defense spending, civil protection, cybersecurity and intelligence will be exempt from the debt brake rules. This represents a great opportunity for Hungary. The performance of net exports could be gradually increased by the recovery in external demand and new production capacities that will start production from 2026.

He added that inflation is temporarily accelerating, an average price increase of 4.5 percent is expected this year, the indicator may decrease to 3.6 percent next year, and the ministry expects an average annual inflation of 3 percent from 2027 to 2029. The government will preserve the purchasing power of pensions, and the average pension in 2025 may increase by nearly 40,000 forints as part of the additional increase, he emphasized.