MBH: the prospects for the agricultural sector are different

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In the analysis sent to MTI on Tuesday, they highlighted: due to the serious challenges experienced in recent years and at the beginning of 2026, the Hungarian agricultural sector is facing significant changes, and in addition to the essential change in attitude, the financial decisions being made now may also set new directions in increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of the sector. The agricultural sector is currently facing difficulties mainly in the milk and pork markets, and in the longer term it must also find a response to the negative effects of climate change, although the current colder, more rainy winter weather has had a positive effect on the prospects for arable crop production. According to Dávid Hollósi, Managing Director of the Agri-Food Business Unit of MBH Bank, the market challenges of recent years and the negative effects of climate change have made it clear that uncertainties can become permanent, which has a significant impact on the production, planning and financial environment of agricultural enterprises. He added that the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy investment program, which is now starting, affects all sectors, from arable crop production to animal husbandry and horticulture to the food industry, and provides a perhaps never-returning opportunity and resources to increase the efficiency of Hungarian agriculture. The value of the MBH AgrárTrend Index, the agri-food industry confidence indicator based on the situation assessment of customers, interprofessional organizations and the bank’s analysts, showed 31.9 points on a 48-point scale at the beginning of 2026, thus moving slightly further away from the 35 points considered to be the equilibrium level: after the quarter ending in September last year, it decreased by another 0.4 points in the last three months of 2025. The value was last at a similarly low level at the end of 2023, but then it was mainly due to the weak price level in the crop market, while now it was mainly the challenges in the milk and pork markets that led to the decrease. According to Csaba Héjja, strategic analyst of the Agricultural and Food Business Unit of MBH Bank, difficulties are mainly experienced in sales in the two significant animal product sectors, but in addition to producers, the market environment is currently less favorable for processors. The crop-growing sectors are, however, somewhat more optimistic, as the winter weather has been favorable for them so far, so overall there is even an improvement compared to the post-harvest period – he added.

According to the analysis, this year’s colder, more rainy weather had a positive effect on crop expectations in arable crop production

However, due to the high supply level, prices are at a moderate level. The fate of arable crop production and the product paths based on it will be decided in the period from April to June – said Csaba Héjja, adding that due to the less favorable price environment, one can rather rely on a good crop volume. At the same time, despite the snowfall, there is a significant lack of water in the soil, 75 millimeters projected across the entire country.

In the animal product sectors, the outlook for the poultry sector is good for broilers and turkeys, and the waterfowl sectors also had a more favorable year than in the past

2025 was also a successful year for egg producers, and at the beginning of the year only a slight price decrease was visible due to the seasonal pattern. In the case of the other two key product sectors, milk production and pork production, the negative outlook that had already been apparent peaked by the end of the year. Spot market prices for milk practically halved by the end of the year – from a higher level – and the spot market price of raw milk, which can be produced at cost price of 150-170 forints per liter, is currently around 100-110 forints. Contracts can be made at much lower prices than last year, so the sector needs all the help it can get now – said Csaba Héjja. According to him, the supply and demand level on the milk market may recover by the third quarter of 2026. The demand for pigs is stable, and feed is not expected to become more expensive. Experts also expect an improvement in the outlook for pig farming and breeding in the second half of the year. According to the analysis, the smaller volumes due to the cold winter in large southern producers in the case of drive-through horticulture resulted in a serious demand market, so the outlook may be favorable. Fruit growers can count on favorable spring weather after their difficult year last year. For the grape and wine sector, the cold winter helps protect against golden yellows, but at the same time does not completely solve the problem.

MTI