MBH Investment Bank currency analysis: the forint may strengthen in the short term

Based on the model, the strengthening of the forint is supported by a number of macroeconomic factors, including the improvement of the foreign trade balance and the unchanged base interest rate policy of the Hungarian National Bank. The latter plays a role in the fact that the forint remains attractive to investors, who positively evaluate the stable interest rate environment and the relative balance of the Hungarian economy.

The analysis also contains a specific proposal: the recommended entry price is 394.3, while the target price is between 385.6-382.0. The stop loss level, i.e. the price at which the position must be closed in order to avoid possible losses, was set at 399.3. According to the analysis team, this can represent a reliable trading strategy for investors betting on the strengthening of the forint.

Exchange rate movements between the Romanian lei (RON) and the Czech crown (CZK) were also the focus of the investigation. MBH analysts recommend taking a long position in the RON/CZK currency pair, so they expect the Romanian leu to strengthen and the Czech crown to weaken. According to the forecasts, the stabilization of the Romanian economy and the effects of the policy of the Romanian central bank may in the long term steer the exchange rate of the lei against the koruna in a favorable direction. The VAR model predicts a yield potential of 5.42% for the RON/CZK currency pair, which can be realized by the end of 2024.

The report also draws attention to the fact that changes in the global economic environment may affect the above forecasts. The analysis points out that an additional prerequisite for the strengthening of the forint and the lei is that no dramatic changes occur in the eurozone and other major economic blocs of the world, which could make the markets unpredictable.