MBH Bank Macroeconomic Outlook: Growth Prospects and Challenges in 2025

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 02. 19. 12:12

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According to the latest quarterly macroeconomic forecast from MBH Bank’s Analysis Center, the Hungarian economy could be on a growth path in 2025, although challenges remain significant. The latest report provides a detailed analysis of GDP growth, labor market trends, inflationary processes and financial market expectations.

Economic growth could return in 2025

According to the report, GDP growth is expected to be 2.6% in 2025, which is a significant improvement compared to the stagnation of previous years. The growth is mainly due to the expansion of consumption and exports. Household consumption could increase by 4.3%, while exports could show a growth of 3.5%. Industrial production could also pick up, although only a 1% expansion is forecast after the decline in 2024.

Investment and inventory levels are still low, and fixed asset accumulation may grow by only 0.1% in 2025. However, the construction industry may remain subdued, with the sector’s performance likely to decline by -0.9%.

Labor market situation: gradual improvement expected

According to MBH forecasts, the employment situation may improve in the second half of 2025. The unemployment rate may fall to 4.3% from 4.4% this year. Wage growth may slow, with an 8.5% increase forecast, which may result in real income growth compared to inflation.