MBH Bank: Encouraging outlook in the trade sector – sector outlook

By: Trademagazin Date: 2024. 07. 05. 12:45

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In May, the retail turnover essentially stagnated, but excluding the turnover of gas stations, the monthly increase was 0.6%. The growing trend of consumer confidence has flattened out recently, essentially stagnating since March. Net real wages began to rise dynamically from the end of the summer of 2023, so it can be expected that the caution of buyers will be lifted and consumption will return to the upward path. This process has been clearly visible since October, despite minor fluctuations, so we expect that one of the main pillars of this year’s economic growth will be the re-strengthening of household consumption.

Trade performance:

Based on data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects in May, the volume of retail trade increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis, thus remaining essentially unchanged.However, without fuel turnover, the expansion is 0.6%. The current data confirm that consumer caution is still present in the economy, the recovery of retail turnover is a slow but stable process, compared to the level of October last year (when the turnaround of retail trade is more visible in the data), the current turnover is 3.2 % is at a higher level.In addition, the annual change in turnover accumulated since the beginning of the year also increases month by month: in the January-May period, the volume of retail trade increased by 2.7% compared to the same period of the previous year.

On an annual basis, the increase was 3.6%, which is significantly higher than the 3.2% in April. The increasing rate of expansion measured on an ever-strengthening base is a good sign, but in May the food category contributed almost exclusively to this.