Hungary 2026 – turning point from stagnation, but with open risks

By: Trademagazin Date: 2026. 01. 27. 12:20

🎧 Hallgasd a cikket: Nyelv: Sebesség: 1.05×

The Hungarian economy is expected to return to growth in 2026 after three years of stagnation. However, the expected acceleration in the GDP pace is mainly driven by temporary factors – pre-election fiscal stimulus, a short period of low inflation and the gradual start-up of new industrial capacities. So, it is not a comprehensive improvement in fundamentals, but a fragile turnaround, the sustainability of which will be tested in the second half of the year.

Household consumption plays a key role in 2025 and early 2026, which actually prevented a deeper recession. Government transfers and wage growth support demand mainly in the first half of the year, but consumer dynamics may gradually moderate due to the expected return of inflationary pressures and the likely fiscal consolidation. For an economy that relies heavily on domestic demand, this represents a structural vulnerability.

Industry remains the weak point of the economy. Although a slight recovery is expected in 2026 due to the start of new foreign investments, Hungarian industry remains strongly linked to developments in Germany. The January IFO business climate index in Germany, which remained at 87.6 points and fell short of market expectations, confirms that German companies are cautious – both in assessing the current situation and in terms of the prospects for the coming months. For Central European economies, this means that a significant external growth impulse cannot be expected for the time being.

The external environment, especially developments in Germany, do not provide a strong growth impulse for the region for the time being. The expected recovery depends more on domestic factors, and is therefore more vulnerable to currency fluctuations.

– points out Jacek Jurczynski, CEO of Akcenta.

This combination of a weaker external environment and domestic, fiscally supported growth is also reflected in the financial market development. The Hungarian forint enters 2026 after a significant strengthening in the previous year, but its further development will be sensitive to the decisions of the central bank, the inflation path and the political uncertainty related to the April elections. Even with a relatively stable average exchange rate, higher short-term volatility is expected, especially in line with the macro data of the eurozone and changes in global sentiment.

For companies, 2026 is not only about the return of economic growth, but primarily about managing uncertainty. In an environment where economic development is based on temporary incentives and weak foreign demand, managing risks, including exchange rate risks, becomes paramount. It is on this that the expected recovery will truly translate into stable margins and financial security for companies.