Corn market: weak harvest, growing uncertainty, shifting imports

Experts estimate the harvest at between 3 and 4 million tons, while the sown area has been decreasing for years. Three large buyers on the processing side – Pannonia Bio, Hungrana and Kall – are able to absorb almost the entire quantity even in a weak year. Only the bioethanol industry can utilize the lower quality corn, while isosugar producers and feed mixers work under strict limit values.

The market has been burdened by politicized taboos for years: farmers are afraid of Ukrainian imports, but according to large users, Ukrainian corn is currently not arriving in Hungary due to the rationality of the commodity market. Meanwhile, Polish production is increasing, and the entire EU is now flooded with American shipments.

Prices are hovering around €200-230/tonne, but trading is sluggish: farmers are waiting, buyers are talking about shrinking margins. Due to climate change and weather extremes, Hungarian corn production is increasingly becoming a “Russian roulette” – the long-term competitiveness of the sector therefore depends on the transformation of production methods and the flexibility of the supply chain.