Christmas 2025: we start earlier, spend consciously and choose using AI

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2025/8-9.

The question is whether this trend is a good indicator for the upcoming Christmas holiday season. In the following article we take a look at what to expect during the most wonderful time of the year.

Encouraging signs

According to Salesforce data, 34% of global consumers – 22% more than in April last year –are optimistic about the current economic situation, and 27% more than in the previous six months feel that their financial situation has improved. It is also a good sign that while the majority of consumers have been saving and investing their money over the past 12 months, they now intend to spend their disposable income primarily on physical products, followed by savings and experiences. Despite the positive trend one in three shoppers say they have bought less in the past six months. Consumers spent USD 1.2tn globally in e-commerce during the holidays last year, a figure that Statista forecasts will rise to USD 8tn by 2028. 37% of shoppers are more likely to make a purchase when they receive personalised offers and AI can be an effective tool in this.

37% of shoppers are more likely to buy when they get personalized offers

More and more people are starting earlier

Although there are still 149 days to go until Christmas at the time of writing, many forecasts suggest that shoppers will start preparing for the holidays and buying gifts early this year. According to a survey by Basis Technologies, 66% try to avoid delivery delays by ordering early, while 63% simply want to get their gift shopping done as quickly as possible. 15% of shoppers start preparing in the spring, while about one in five shoppers (19%) shop in the summer, for example during Amazon Prime Day in July. The majority (58%) start their shopping during the peak season and by December only 9% still have their shopping to do, according to research by Salsify. Even if tight budgets continue to be a concern for most consumers, emotional connections and personal values take precedence when making purchasing decisions: consumers are willing to spend more on brands that represent the same values as their own, despite economic difficulties.

By starting to prepare early, consumers mainly seek to avoid price increases and delays in delivery

Physical stores as popular as ever

Although digital channels have gained ground rapidly over the past five years, Statista estimates that physical stores still accounted for 83% of retail sales in 2024. At the same time, customer journeys are becoming increasingly complex: according to Salesforce data, the average consumer interacts with a brand nine times before making a purchase. Younger generations are attracted to stores by immediate availability, the ability to hold products in their hands and the experience of discovery. Social media as a sales channel is growing rapidly in importance, with various platforms having a strengthening influence on both product discovery and purchasing. Salesforce reports that 24% of respondents purchased desired items on social media.

Product discovery is AI-powered and hyper-personalised

Salesforce data reveals that 5% of shoppers today – 10% of Gen Z – use an AI-powered chat assistant (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Meta AI, Grok, etc.) to search for holiday gifts, and 39% will definitely use them at some point in their shopping journey instead of traditional search – to get more personalised product recommendations. Brands that deploy AI as a strategic partner to engage shoppers can expect significant gains this season, as Salesforce predicts that consumers who use AI-powered recommendations to explore offerings will generate approximately USD 260bn in online sales and USD 1.6tn in in-store sales during the holiday season this year.

A third of Generation Z would place gifts bought in social media under the Christmas tree

Second-hand is coming into fashion

More and more people are turning to “second-hand or “pre-owned” products, as Levi’s, Zara, and H&M call them. 17% of consumers specifically buy such items and not just to meet their everyday needs, as 46% plan to purchase used goods as gifts in the next six months. The main motivations behind these not entirely new gift considerations are saving money (68%), sustainability and reducing waste (35%). Salesforce predicts that shoppers will spend USD 64bn on used goods this season. In 2025 customer loyalty is determined by two main factors: price and quality. Due to inflation, consumer decisions will continue to be driven primarily by low prices and free shipping for the rest of the year.