Cocoa price shock: hectic world market rewrites candy manufacturers’ plans

By: Trademagazin Date: 2026. 03. 25. 11:48

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Fluctuations in agricultural markets are increasingly directly shaping the costs of the confectionery industry, especially through the world market price of cocoa beans. Gábor Intődy, Secretary General of the Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers’ Association, told Agrarszektor that compared to the relatively stable cocoa price of around 3,000 dollars/ton for a long time, extreme fluctuations have occurred in the past two years.

According to the Secretary General, on the world market data-end=”524″>The price of cocoa rose to 12–14 thousand dollars/ton, which quickly reflected in the price of cocoa-containing products, especially dark chocolate. The fluctuations are due to increasing pest pressure and climate extremes in the producing countries, as well as the expansion of the demand side: the rapid growth of chocolate consumption in India and China is permanently pushing up global demand.

Although there has been a significant price drop recently, even to levels of around 2–3 thousand dollars, this is not reassuring for producers: the problem is precisely the unpredictability. According to Intődy, it is difficult to decide whether it is worth calculating with a cocoa price of 3,000, 5,000 or 14,000 dollars in the coming period. Uncertainty can be further exacerbated by exchange rate movements and logistics costs (for example, the impact of oil prices), which is why companies react with more cautious pricing and “self-protection”: a temporary decrease in the price of raw materials does not necessarily mean an immediate decrease in consumer prices, because they also need to cover the next wave of price increases.