Illusions and reality: will there be enough energy for future civilization?

Useful energy versus physical reality

The proposal was disputed by physicist Attila Szilva, who in his response article entitled “There is no need to fear a crisis, we will have abundant and clean energy”, confidently argued that there is no reason to worry thanks to renewable energy sources. In his argument, he focused on the concept of useful energy, citing the kinetic energy of cars or the light from lamps as examples. He pointed out that while the use of fossil fuels results in significant heat loss, electricity from solar panels can be converted into useful energy much more efficiently.

However, the physical reality shows otherwise. About half of the world’s total energy consumption is heat energy, which is not a “loss” but a basic requirement for modern industry. The production of steel, cement, plastics and fertilizers – the so-called “big four” – together use a quarter of all energy produced by humanity, all from fossil sources. The same is true for mining, ore processing, maritime and air transport or road freight transport.

The limits of renewables

Global thermal energy consumption increased by 6 percent between 2017 and 2022, and less than half of this came from renewables. This also makes clear the weak point of the theory outlined by Attila Szilva: the advantage of renewables that they produce little heat becomes an unaffordable disadvantage in the largest industries.

According to the Energy Institute, in 2024, only 19 percent of the world’s energy consumption was electricity, two-thirds of which still came from coal and natural gas. For comparison: in 1980, this ratio was 11 percent – that is, it increased by only eight percentage points in half a century, while global energy demand more than doubled.