Even though the price of cocoa has halved, chocolate will not become cheaper

On European commodity exchanges, the price of cocoa has fallen from around 12,000 euros at the beginning of the year to around 6,000 euros, which at first glance could predict a serious price drop. However, according to the expert, the cost share of cocoa in the price of finished chocolate does not exceed 20 percent even for products with a high cocoa content, so the cheaper raw material alone has a limited impact at most.

Another limiting factor is that manufacturers typically work with 6-12-month procurement cycles, meaning that previously purchased stocks at higher prices will determine the cost level for a long time. In addition, other costs of chocolate production – processing, packaging, transportation, marketing and labor – do not follow the decrease in cocoa prices, and in fact, further price increases are expected in several areas.

Gábor Intődy also drew attention to the fact that transportation costs and wages are expected to increase in 2026, while packaging costs and utility fees have already shown significant increases in the recent period. Although the current stronger forint temporarily improves purchasing conditions, its effect may only be reflected in store prices at a discount level.

According to professional expectations, the significant impact of the decline in cocoa prices may appear in supplier prices in early-mid 2026 at the earliest, but consumer price levels may remain stable overall.