GKI: An attempt to rapidly measure the coronavirus crisis and economic performance

By: Trademagazin editor Date: 2020. 08. 16. 11:25

The application of big data analysis methods and machine learning has created new opportunities in the preparation of economic analyzes and forecasts. Based on the information available to it, the Central Statistical Office publishes the first estimate of quarterly GDP data one and a half months after the end of the quarter and subsequently reviews the reported data on an ongoing basis. In response to these challenges, GKI experimentally developed a short-term model that approximates monthly GDP.

In the model, we estimated the monthly time series of GDP growth measured for the same period of the previous year, and the results reported in this way can be considered as a lower estimate. Based on this, we expect a decrease of -10% in April, -7.5% in May, and the rate of decline may reach -5.5% in June. This is partly due to the decline in Europe and partly to the partial maintenance of restrictions. Overall, the second-quarter growth figure estimates that the rate of decline could exceed 8.5%. The estimation result of our experimental model cannot be considered as the official position of GKI regarding the growth prospects, however, it is an interesting methodological experiment regarding the use of available data and surveys.