Business Meetup & Dinner: compass in a chaotic world

By: Barok Eszter Date: 2025. 08. 26. 15:37

Trade magazin’s Business Meetup & Dinner event once again provided a forum where business decision-makers could find analytical insights and strategic inspiration.

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2025/8-9.

Zsuzsanna Hermann
managing director-editor-in-chief
Trade magazin

Szilvia Krizsó
moderator

Nenad Pacek
president
Global Success Advisors

After Szilvia Krizsó’s welcome speech Zsuzsanna Hermann told: the Business Meetup & Dinner basically serves as “Day Zero” of the now 7-day Business Days conference that is held in September. In his opening presentation Nenad Pacek, the president of Global Success Advisors said: strategic thinking is more important than ever before in today’s unpredictable economic environment.

Presentations by Dr Zoltán Pogátsa and Dr Tamás Matura

„Strategic directions are needed to move
the country’s industrial framework toward
the high-value segments of the value chain;
without such progress, economic convergence
will remain a mere illusion” – dr. Zoltán Pogátsa,
economist

The main problem of the Hungarian economy isn’t the external environment, but its internal structure, emphasised economist Zoltán Pogátsa. Low wages, underfunded education and healthcare, and technological backwardness undermine competitiveness in the long term. The lack of a middle class isn’t only a social problem, but also an economic one.

This year again, Nenad Pacek delivered the opening keynote speech at our Business Meetup & Dinner event, providing an overview of current global economic trends, the outlook for major and neighboring markets over the next 12 months, and even insights into Hungary’s economic prospects

The Business Meetup & Dinner marks Day Zero of our late-September Business Days conference, where we continue the presentations and discussions that began in May

„The greatest challenge the
Chinese economy has to face is
its accelerating demographic decline”
– dr. Tamás Matura, China-expert

According to China expert Tamás Matura, the country’s economic slowdown is the result of structural breakages. The Chinese real estate crisis, weak domestic consumption and demographic decline are leading to the exhaustion of the economic model. The ruling party is unwilling to undertake far-reaching reforms, at the same time restricting the private sector’s room for manoeuvre

Many showed keen interest in the outlook of China’s economy, but understanding it requires familiarity with the country’s cultural nuances — something participants gained valuable insights into during the event

Domestic trade is bleeding from too many wounds

„According to GKI, nearly one-fifth
of grocery stores are considering closure
if everything remains unchanged”
– dr. Tamás Kozák, secretary general
of OKSZ

Dr Tamás Kozák, secretary general of the National Trade Association (OKSZ) told: the margin freeze – which is also holding back food production – causes an annual loss of around HUF 150bn, reducing the GDP by 0.2-0.3 percentage points. While trade’s contribution to the Hungarian GDP is 10-11%, in Poland this ratio is 14-15%.

„In connection with the margin cap,
the increased transparency of pricing
strategies has heightened tensions…”
– Tamás Éder, president of FÉSZ

According to Tamás Éder, president of the Federation of Responsible Food Manufacturers (FÉSZ), the best solution would be a gradual reduction in margins, but losses are now being felt by all the players in the value chain, so further delays pose a systemic risk. First the price freeze and now the margin freeze have already distorted the market and boosted imports.

The combined impact of weak consumer confidence, economic uncertainty, and social tensions is clearly reflected in subdued purchasing data

György Surányi: growth model crisis in Hungary

“A consumption-driven growth model
is unsustainable in a small, open
economy where 80% of GDP is
derived from imports” –
dr. György Surányi, former president
of MNB

According to György Surányi, university lecturer and former president of the Central Bank of Hungary (MNB), price caps alone aren’t enough to tackle inflation; at best they can bring about a one-off and temporary reduction, while distorting the market and strengthening inflationary expectations. The reasons are more deeply root ed: nominal wages are growing 4-5 times faster than productivity, public debt has doubled in four years, the budget deficit has hovered between 6% and 8% before 2023, the exchange rate has depreciated, and the monetisation of the MNB’s gigantic losses further increases domestic demand that isn’t backed by output.

In his view economic balance can’t be restored through market-distorting administrative interventions, but through the correction of macroeconomic processes, the restructuring of economic policy and substantive reforms. He described the often free, non-repayable and selective distribution of state funds – which undermines competitiveness – as particularly harmful. Economic policy should boost investment demand, which it did until mid-2022 but without any significant success. Despite the exceptionally high investment rate of 27-29%, productivity growth was weak, partly because this high investment rate was achieved through an unfavourable structure, characterised by low added value, low net exports, low R&D and little innovation – thus productivity growth averaged only 1.1%.