Analysts did not expect such a level of GDP growth either – this could be the reason

By: Trademagazin Date: 2022. 08. 17. 10:18

As we wrote about earlier, domestic GDP increased by 6.5% in the second quarter, while it expanded by 1.1% compared to the first quarter. All of this exceeded not only the expectations of Takarékbank and Bankholding, but also the analysts’ calculations. In the first half of the year, the growth of the domestic economy was 7.3%.

A slowdown in growth was expected due to the higher base caused by the gradual reopening after the epidemic a year ago, as well as the negative effects of the war, soaring inflation and interest rate hikes against it, but growth was nevertheless strong. Due to the higher-than-expected growth, it is not out of the question that we will adjust our growth forecast of 5.7% this year slightly upwards. Thanks to the robust growth, domestic GDP growth was able to remain at the top of the EU, and this year the catch-up may continue. The domestic GDP exceeds the pre-epidemic level by about 7.2%.

With the exception of agriculture, all branches of the national economy contributed to the growth, mostly industry and market services. Within industry, the expansion of food and beverage production and the production of electrical equipment was particularly significant, and among market services, the expansion of accommodation services, catering, and transportation and warehousing was significant. Growth was hampered by a significant decline in agriculture.

In the second quarter, due to the drought, agriculture may have declined significantly, but due to the low base, GDP growth may have only slightly worsened. Industrial production slowed down compared to the first quarter (according to raw data, the growth of industrial production was 4.7% after 5.8% in the first quarter). The growth of the construction industry slowed to a greater extent compared to the nearly 17% in the first quarter. Retail turnover expanded to a similar extent, while at the same time the recovery of catering and tourism continued, even though their growth rate slowed somewhat due to the rising base of a year ago.

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