AM: field overview of the effects of the summer heat wave

By: STA Date: 2024. 07. 23. 10:00

The July analysis of the European Commission’s Joint Research Center (JRC) on arable crops based on meteorological and satellite data has been published, the Ministry of Agriculture (AM) told MTI on Tuesday.

(Photo: Pixabay)

The quantified impact of the summer heat wave in Southeast Europe on domestic agriculture should be investigated based on data-based models as much as possible – they wrote. They added: In the case of Hungary, according to satellite data, the JRC reduced yield expectations for corn by 14 percent and sunflower by 9 percent based on mid-July data, compared to estimates in June. They revised their previous forecast of 7.47 tons and 3.01 tons for corn to 6.77 tons per hectare, and to 2.73 tons for sunflower. The analysis is based on data generated for about half of the heat wave of the past weeks, so it can be considered an intermediate estimate. The extent of the actual fallout will be determined by the weather in the following days and weeks.

Looking at other South-Eastern European countries, in Bulgaria the corn yield is forecast by 15 percent (5.37 tons per hectare), sunflower by 7 percent (2.17 tons per hectare), in Romania the corn yield is forecast by 10 percent (4.55 tons per hectare), sunflower by 6 percent. percent (1.95 tons per hectare). At the EU level (EU27), these figures mean a 4 percent decrease for corn (7.24 tons per hectare) and a 5 percent decrease for sunflower (2.09 tons per hectare). In Ukraine, the Ukrainian National Hydrometeorological Center predicts a 20 to 30 percent loss of corn yield.

The heat wave is also significantly affecting the sunflower, but in the case of this plant, international analysts expect a yield loss of around 4 percent for the time being. Based on Hungaromet Zrt.’s agrometeorological data, the thirty-day precipitation amount for the past period, with the exception of the central regions of the Great Plain and the Upper Tisza region, is 20-50 millimeters below what is usual at this time. The great territorial differences are shown by the fact that in many places in the central part of the country, not even 20 millimeters fell, typically 30-70 millimeters were measured in the western two-thirds of Transdanubia, and 50-90 millimeters in the eastern two-thirds of the Great Plain and the northeast. The local downpours and thunderstorms alleviate the drought in spots and help the plant populations, but more significant and extensive precipitation, as well as an alleviation of heat stress, would be needed, the announcement reads.

MTI