Péter Feiner ask Ákos Kozák

Question:
Retail turnover fell in the first half of 2010. What do you think the perspectives are for the second half of the year? What can retailers and manufacturers expect after the hardships of the past 2-3 years? What will influence consumer decisions the most in 2011?

Answer:
Because of the nature of the crisis it is very difficult to make forecasts. However, it is a fact that statistical data by the KSH from the first six months and our own data both show that we were wrong to forecast a slower weakening process. My opinion is that domestic retail is unable ‘to pull itself out of the hole’. Without state intervention processes will be unable to follow the old, beaten paths. It is unrealistic to expect a significant rise in employment for the second half of the year. My view is that a drastic lowering of the personal income tax would be an adequate tool to speed up consumption. I do not expect positive trends for the next couple of months; perhaps in the last 2-3 months of the year there will positive signs.

As for 2011, I have no reason to say that it will be another bad year, but I do not believe that it will be like in the early or mid-2000s. The markets of non-food products might expand and daily consumer goods also have room for development. Domestic retail will only consolidate slowly and under the surface, the real big steps are still way ahead of us. The crisis completely restructured the market environment and the way company managements think.