Modest growth may start in the summer of 2010

According to a forecast by GKI Gazdaságkutató Zrt. and Erste Bank, after a 6.5-percent economic decline in 2009 stagnation is expected for 2010. The Hungarian economy has probably hit the nadir and in the 4th quarter a modest growth is expected, compared to the previous three months. In comparison with the same period a year earlier, only the second part of 2010 will bring a modest growth. In Germany, our main export market, GDP may grow by more than 1 percent in 2010. In the building and construction sector, no growth is expected until 2011. In 2009, import fell more than export, because of shrinking domestic demand. For 2010, import is estimated to be more dynamic (measured in Euro). In 2009, real income is expected to shrink by 4-5 percent, with real wages decreasing by 2 percent and unemployment growing by 3.5-4 percent. Inflation may decrease to 3 percent by the end of 2010. State budget deficit in 2009 will be around 3.9 percent of the GDP.