NIQ managing director Erik Vágyi in the Chain Bridge Club: regulated prices, cautious consumers

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2026/04

Erik Vágyi
managing director
NIQ

The change is also evident in the FMCG sector: value-based growth is slowing globally, while market turnover for technical consumer goods is accelerating again. The Hungarian FMCG market continues to follow its own path. According to NielsenIQ data, value growth is mainly driven by price effects, while volumes are only slowly recovering after the previous decline. Following a big volume drop in 2023, moderate growth is expected in 2024 and 2025, but this doesn’t yet represent a real turnaround in demand. Erik Vágyi thinks the impact of inflation is now less evident in price levels and more in consumer thinking.

Price margin freeze: big intervention with a small impact

As for the regulatory environment, NielsenIQ data indicate that the margin freeze had an impact on a wider range of products than previous price cap measures: while in 2022–2023 the proportion of affected shopping baskets was around 6%, by 2025 a quarter of total FMCG sales were subject to the regulation. However, consumer perception didn’t fully follow the regulatory intent: 8 out of 10 consumers had heard of the margin freeze, but every second respondent felt that the prices of certain products had surged despite the measure. The government measure’s influence on increasing volume sales also remained limited: there was only a moderate shift in regulated food categories in the months following the introduction, with the total food market volume remaining virtually stagnant. Shoppers weren’t just looking for cheaper products, but for alternatives. When a regulated category became relatively more favourable, a rapid shift began among products with similar functions – decisions were shaped not only by absolute price, but also by the logic of substitutability.

Non-food: faster adaptation, striking differences

The drugstore and household categories clearly demonstrated how the market responds to the regulatory environment. NielsenIQ data reveal that unregulated products achieved stronger volume growth in many cases than those subject to margin restrictions, and the drugstore sector as a whole saw positive volume movement. This suggests that demand isn’t driven solely by price and that certain categories were able to achieve outstanding growth even without intervention. According to NielsenIQ Consumer Outlook, Hungarian consumer mood continues to be dominated by financial uncertainty. Rising food prices are the biggest concern, but utility costs and economic uncertainty also play a key role in their decisions. Erik Vágyi opines that the impact of inflation is now more evident in people’s minds than in price levels.