2024 Outlook: Next year is about a cyclical recession, according to Fidelity’s base case scenario

By: Trademagazin Date: 2023. 12. 12. 12:35

Most of the surprises for central bank officials and the financial markets in 2023 stemmed from the fact that we do not yet understand the deeper economic effects on households and companies of the last fifteen years, including the pandemic. According to Fidelity experts, in the coming months we will see more clearly, at least with regard to inflation, the optimal level of interest rates and the unshakable resilience of the US labor market. However, investors rightly fear that the next phase of the cycle will bring even greater volatility.

The economy continues to surprise us, but we can be sure of one thing: if interest rates in the US and other developed countries have not yet reached their peak, they will soon, and growth will stagnate under such conditions. Fidelity sees four possible scenarios for 2024 and the next phase of the business cycle, with a cyclical recession as the most likely.

A piacok azonban, mivel a visszaesésre számító befektetők egyszer már megégették magukat, most a Goldilocks-szcenáriónak is nevezett ideális körülmények között bekövetkező, lágy landolásra számítanak, melynek során a kamatemeléseknek és az elmúlt két év szigorításainak pont annyi hatása lesz, hogy a gazdaság és a munkaerőpiac fokozatosan visszanyerje az egyensúlyát. A Fidelity azonban más vélemény van.