Crowds return to stores: margin cap and year-end preparations drive retail traffic

The congestion seen in the days leading up to Christmas was not a one-off phenomenon. High-traffic retail formats offering “one-stop shopping” have experienced steadily rising footfall since late November, peaking on the Sunday before Christmas and during the first days of the holiday week. Employees report that shoppers were not focusing solely on discounted or low-priced items, but instead completed full-scale festive grocery and household purchases.

Average Basket Value on the Rise

At checkout and across store aisles, it was evident that consumers purchased a wider product range and larger quantities than in previous years. According to the trade union, average basket value has clearly increased, driven not only by prices but also by the number of items per transaction.

The surge in demand placed considerable operational pressure on stores. In many locations, seasonal, fresh, and promotional items sold out quickly, requiring continuous replenishment. Full parking lots, shortages of shopping carts, and long queues at checkouts and bottle return machines all point to sustained, above-average purchasing intensity.

Stable Supply and Returning Consumer Confidence

From a labor and retail operations perspective, one of the key characteristics of this year’s holiday season has been a noticeable improvement in consumer confidence. While price sensitivity remains strong, shoppers appeared less inclined to postpone purchases and showed a greater willingness to spend during the festive period.

This trend was supported by stable product availability, aggressive promotional activity, and several income-related measures. Family tax allowances, SZÉP card spending options, and food vouchers provided to pensioners all contributed to sustaining consumer demand.

Margin Cap: Tangible Savings, Limited Visibility

One of the most debated regulatory measures of the year, the margin cap, appears to have had a measurable impact on consumer behavior, even if many shoppers were not consciously aware of it. According to retail worker feedback, the scale of year-end spending would have been difficult to achieve without the presence of lower prices on regulated product categories.

A new proposal has also emerged: similarly to utility cost reductions, the savings generated by margin-capped products could be displayed directly on receipts. This would enhance transparency and could also strengthen consumer perception of the policy’s benefits.

High Turnover, Ongoing Pressure

For retailers, the period between Christmas and New Year’s Eve is not a cooldown phase but rather another peak in operational demand. High traffic levels are expected to persist through the end of the year, continuing to challenge workforce planning, shelf replenishment, and inventory management.

Based on this year’s experience, one conclusion is clear: retail activity is strong, consumer spending is active, and money is circulating in the system.