The era of cheap coffee may be over

The development of coffee prices is primarily driven by uncertainties on the supply side. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of Arabica, has faced several droughts and adverse weather conditions in recent years, which have worsened crop prospects. Due to low global inventories, the market is particularly sensitive to any new information, be it weather news, logistical disruptions or geopolitical tensions.

Although there have been brief corrections throughout the year – for example, due to improved production expectations or more favorable shipping prospects – these have not brought lasting relief. Robusta coffee prices have also remained volatile, but overall they have also stabilized above the average of previous years. The effects of climate change, high energy costs and transport costs together maintain pressure on prices.

According to experts, coffee is no longer just an agricultural product, but increasingly a global investment vehicle, so the general market sentiment and the financial environment also directly affect its price. All this is reflected, albeit delayed, in consumer prices: in several markets, demand for private label products is increasing, and coffee consumption is declining.

According to industry expectations, the current price level can no longer be considered a temporary shock. One of the most important lessons of 2025 is that the end of the era of “old, cheap coffee” is a realistic scenario, and the entire supply chain – from producers to trade to hospitality – must prepare for longer-term adaptation.