New momentum in start-ups, but the decline in the number of companies has not stopped yet

Economic background – a dual track

In the summer of 2025, the Hungarian economy shows both promising and worrying signs. GDP grew by only 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous year. Growth was driven by services, while industry (–3.9% in the first half of the year) and construction (–2.4% in the first five months) continued to weaken.

Retail, on the other hand, picked up, with sales in June 3% higher than a year earlier, indicating stronger domestic consumption. This duality – rising consumption and weakening production – directly affects the entrepreneurial environment, where market dynamics are highly sensitive to macroeconomic changes.

A wave of new formations in mid-summer

According to OPTEN data, more than two thousand new companies were established in July, nearly a 30% monthly increase – a rare development for the summer months. However, the momentum could not break the long-term trend: compared to last year, nearly 4% fewer new businesses were founded in July. The largest year-on-year declines were observed in trade and in the professional, scientific, and technical sectors.

Declining company numbers – a slower pace

At the end of July, the number of corporate entities was still just above 498,000, which is 500 fewer than a month earlier. This downward trend has now lasted for 22 months, but this year’s July saw the smallest decline yet, signaling potential stabilization.

Company closures: cautious easing

The number of closures slightly exceeded 2,500 in July, with a modest monthly increase but around a 6% year-on-year decrease. This suggests that somewhat fewer businesses are being forced out of the market, though closures still outnumber new formations.

Court proceedings – construction most at risk

The number of new court proceedings in July again approached 4,000, but both monthly and yearly figures moderated. The most affected sectors are trade and construction, with the latter showing an exceptionally high ratio of proceedings relative to the number of companies (8.7%), clearly indicating the sector’s exposure to risk.

Outlook – consumption keeps the market alive

The mid-summer rise in new company formations is a favorable development, but the continued decline in overall company numbers shows that the business environment remains challenging. The duality in the economy – growing consumption and weak production – is reflected in company trends as well: more new businesses are founded, but survival conditions remain strict.

“In the short term, we can expect moderate prospects: without renewed momentum in investments and production sectors, GDP will at best stagnate. In the longer run, however, consumption and services could provide the foundation for recovery – if confidence returns to the market,” said Csaba Alföldi, corporate information expert at OPTEN.

The Opten – Company Fluctuation Index (CFI – the ratio of deleted and newly founded companies compared to those operating at the start of the period) reached 12.27% in July nationwide. By county, the highest fluctuation rates were recorded in Nógrád, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, while the lowest Opten–CFI values were found in Somogy, Tolna, and Vas counties.

Opten – CFI by county, July 2025