Trump’s tariff hike could make olive oil more expensive – world’s largest producer warns

Limited Supply, Higher Prices Ahead

Approximately 95% of the olive oil consumed in the United States is imported — the majority from the EU — meaning the proposed tariff increase would directly impact American shoppers.
“Our top priority is to protect U.S. consumers’ access to a food that is essential for their health,” said Cristóbal Valdés, CEO of Deoleo. “Access to olive oil should be supported, not penalized.”

Although Trump’s tariff threat is not yet final, the EU is currently in talks with the U.S. to reach a trade agreement. The Financial Times reported that a deal may be near, and the final tariff could be closer to 15%.

The U.S. Is Highly Dependent; Deoleo’s Revenue at Risk

While the U.S. grows olives for oil production on just 16,200 hectares, the European Union cultivates nearly 4 million hectares — primarily in Spain, Italy, and Greece. This makes the EU a key player in global supply and price-setting.

For Deoleo, the U.S. market is of strategic importance, accounting for more than a quarter of the company’s total revenue. The company warns that tariff increases would not only hurt consumers but could disrupt the entire supply chain.

Oversupply and Price Drops Loom Over European Market

Analysts at Spanish commodities firm Expana caution that a sharp decline in U.S. imports could trigger global market disruptions. Oversupply in the EU could lead to further price drops and intensify competition among producers — especially impacting smaller growers and traditional olive oil regions.

Strategic Shifts and Adaptive Planning

Deoleo stated it is keeping all strategic options open and is investing in logistics and supply chain development to respond to different market scenarios. Still, the company emphasized that olive oil should not become a casualty of trade politics.
“Supporting long-term access to healthy food like olive oil is in the shared interest of the industry and consumers alike,” Valdés concluded.