Trump’s tariffs could have serious consequences

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 04. 03. 10:17

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Donald Trump’s latest tariff hike plans could have even more serious economic consequences for China than the trade war that erupted during his previous term. According to a Citigroup analysis, the US measures could reduce China’s GDP growth by up to 2.4 percentage points in 2025, Bloomberg reports.

The 54 percent tariff hike announced by the United States on Chinese products poses serious challenges for the world’s second-largest economy. According to Citigroup, the estimated 2.4 percentage point GDP decline does not take into account possible interventions by the Chinese central bank, so the real impact may be milder.

In addition to Citigroup, several other leading financial institutions have also warned of the expected decline. BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation and ING Bank also predict a GDP decline of 1-2 percentage points. Morgan Stanley analysts specifically highlighted that the impact of the current tariff policy could be stronger and more comprehensive than ever before, as not only the direct effects of the tariff increases must be taken into account, but the expected slowdown in global trade could also dampen the momentum of the Chinese economy.