Stagflation and structural erosion in transportation: the profit recession of the Hungarian SME transportation sector has been going on for nine quarters

Cost shock and competitiveness scissors

At the beginning of 2026, the sector will face unique cost pressure. Based on DigiLog Q4 data and NiT Hungary’s internal measurements, the cost of international transportation increased by an average of 8.8%, while the increase in freight rates did not follow this dynamic.

• The “financing trap”: The nearly 40% increase in leasing interest rates and 30-35% in financing costs is hitting Hungarian SMEs with limited capital the hardest, while foreign (mainly Romanian and Bulgarian) competitors are taking advantage of the Schengen benefits and are taking an increasingly larger slice of the domestic market.
• Solvency is deteriorating: As their profits increase, businesses are getting closer to the liquidity threshold, thus reducing the number of investments, the extent of developments and the continuous income correction.

The “Toll Paradox” and the Concession Model

NiT Hungary’s analysis points to a systemic contradiction: the current 35% toll increase planned for the sector (which the government has opened for renegotiation until February 15), would not improve the living conditions of the population, but at the same time it could ruin thousands of Hungarian businesses.

“We propose to reduce the negative impact of transportation on the population by diverting transit traffic. It is a reasonable expectation that only trucks whose destination and transport task truly require it should travel through populated areas. At the same time, we should not burden the entire transport society with an extremely high toll increase”

– emphasized Ferenc Lajkó, the executive secretary general of NiT Hungary.

Structural erosion: 1,400 companies have disappeared The statistical data is alarming: the number of businesses has decreased by 11% since the peak of the sector in 2021. This is not simple market consolidation, but erosion that threatens the security of the Hungarian supply chain. According to NiT Hungary data, 314 family businesses closed down last year alone.

“As a professional organization, we have been working for 36 years to ensure that the number of domestic businesses does not decrease and that their competitiveness is maintained”

– added Lajkó Ferenc, the executive secretary general of NiT Hungary.

Background:

About NiT Hungary: The National Transport Industry Association of Private Enterprises has represented Hungarian road hauliers for 35 years. With more than 4,900 member companies, it is the sector’s leading professional and advocacy organization, aiming to preserve the competitiveness of Hungarian logistics companies on the international market.