Near-record global coffee harvest expected in 2025/2026 season

The report predicts opposite changes in the two main coffee varieties. Production of higher-quality arabica, typically sold as coffee beans, could fall by 1.7% to 97.02 million bags. In contrast, robusta, which is mainly used to make instant coffee powders, could grow by 7.9% to 81.66 million bags.

Market price movements related to production were also affected: positive weather reports from Brazilian coffee-growing regions, especially from the states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, caused the stock market price of arabica to fall to a 5.5-month low in the first week of July. Favorable weather is crucial for flowering and fruit formation, so investors reacted to the expected abundant supply by reducing prices.

The expansion of the robusta segment is due not only to the increase in growing areas, but also to a sustained increase in processing demand. Coffee market trends show that price-sensitive consumers and markets that prefer quick-to-make products, such as parts of Asia and Africa, are increasingly important in global demand.

The world coffee market remains sensitive to climatic conditions, transport costs and changes in consumption habits. However, the forecast for the 2025/2026 season is cause for optimism for processors and traders, especially those interested in producing robusta-based products.

The development of global coffee production is a determining factor not only for drink lovers, but also for food and hospitality players. According to USDA estimates, the upcoming season promises to be a strong year in terms of volume – even if price developments are already indicating tensions in the market.