Randstad HR Trends – the year of quiet rationalisation

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2026/04

According to this, 44% of companies expect sales growth, while 10% anticipate a decline. However, the experience of 2025 calls for caution: more companies than predicted faced actual declines, which dampened their willingness to take risks.

Sándor Baja
managing director
Randstad

Sándor Baja told that the vast majority of those expecting growth are calculating with a 4-10% hike in sales. The FMCG sector remains among the most optimistic: 69% of industry players forecast sales growth in 2026 – down from last year’s 75% expectation, but still a high proportion. Headcount plans paint a more subdued picture, as according to the research, 26% of firms plan to expand in 2026, 12% expect to downsize, and another 17% won’t automatically replace departing employees. Sándor Baja described this as “quiet rationalisation”: companies aren’t responding with spectacular downsizing, but are fine-tuning. In the FMCG sector sales prospects are good, but the intention to increase headcount is restrained.

What everyone’s looking for – and what they’re no longer looking for

Overall, the number of employees isn’t increasing, but the skills sought are undergoing a dramatic shift. According to the research, demand for IT and engineering positions will increase in 2026, while demand for production, logistics, and customer service jobs will decline. Sándor Baja pointed out that this isn’t a cyclical fluctuation, but a structural shift: digital and analytical skills are becoming more valuable, recruitment activity is declining in areas that can be automated, and junior entry-level positions are dwindling. In the FMCG sector classic operational areas (manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics) remain dominant, but companies are increasingly looking for competitive advantage in data-driven decision-making, automated processes, and supply chain optimisation. In 2026 the biggest obstacle to recruitment will still be unrealistic salary expectations: 89% of companies identified this as their number one problem.

Everyone is raising salaries – albeit moderately

The vast majority of companies are planning to raise salaries in 2026: 97% are expecting a salary increase, typically in one step. However, the rate is moderating: the 4-8% range dominates, with double-digit, general salary adjustments becoming less common. Last year’s figures already signalled the turnaround: most companies raised wages in the middle category, while moderate sales prospects and cost pressures limited their room for manoeuvre. Companies are now less likely to raise wages on a “one size fits all” basis. At the same time businesses are increasingly looking for technological and structural solutions – by 2026 37% of companies will actively support and expand AI use. Sándor Baja opi nes that automation and AI aren’t primarily a means of replacing staff, but rather a tool for increasing efficiency. 2026 is likely to be a period of establishing a new balance: moderate growth, disciplined headcount policy, and targeted investment in knowledge.