FAO food price index rises again in February after five months

The FAO Food Price Index – which tracks monthly changes in the prices of the most important food commodities in international trade – averaged 125.3 points in February. This was 0.9% higher than the revised January level but 1.0% lower than a year earlier.

The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 1.1% compared to January, driven mainly by higher world wheat prices. This reflected frosts in parts of Europe and the United States, as well as logistical disruptions in Russia and the wider Black Sea region. International cereal prices also showed moderate increases, while the FAO price index for all rice varieties edged up 0.4%, driven by sustained demand for Basmati and Japonica varieties.

The vegetable oil price index jumped 3.3% in February, reaching its highest level since June 2022. Global palm oil prices rose on solid global import demand and a seasonal slowdown in production in Southeast Asia, while soybean oil prices rose on the back of expected supportive biofuel policy measures in the United States. Rapeseed oil prices rebounded, driven by stronger import demand for Canadian stocks, while sunflower oil prices eased, partly due to increased export supplies from Argentina.

The FAO meat price index rose 0.4% compared to January. Mutton prices reached a record high, while beef prices rose on strong import demand from China and the United States. World pork and poultry prices rose slightly from January levels.

Dairy prices fell by 1.2%, mainly due to lower cheese prices. At the same time, international prices for skimmed and full-fat milk powder strengthened significantly on stronger import demand from North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. World butter prices rose for the first time since their historic peak in June 2025.

The FAO Sugar Price Index fell 4.1% in February compared to January and was 27.3% below its February 2025 level, reflecting the ample global supply expected in the current season.

Further details can be found hereWheat production is expected to decline as Area sown decreases along with prices

The FAOhas publishedits latest forecast for wheat production in 2026. According to preliminary forecasts, global output could fall by about 3% to 810 million tonnes, although this is still above the average of the past five years.

Producers in the European Union, Russia and the United States are expected to reduce the area sown to winter wheat in response to lower prices. In contrast, India’s production outlook is favorable, supported by record plantings driven by government incentives. Prospects are also broadly favorable in Pakistan and China.

The new Cereal Stocks and Demands Flash Report

Grocery Stocks and Demands also provides an early forecast for southern hemisphere maize production: expanding plantings and favorable weather conditions are forecasting above-average yields Argenin Turkey and Brazil.

The FAO also revised up its estimate for global cereal production in 2025, which could reach a record 3,029 million tonnes – a 5.6% increase over the previous year. The forecast for global cereal use in 2025/26 has also been revised up, to a record 2,943 million tonnes.