Uncertainty is growing, startups are disappearing – that’s why the company trend is not reversing

Uncertainty around entrepreneurial decisions is rising again 

The environment for entrepreneurial decisions has become more tense again. Uncertainty around the energy market is increasing again, conflicts in the Middle East are increasing inflation risks through oil prices, while the outlook for global economic demand is also unclear. Geopolitical tensions, exchange rate risk and economic policy uncertainty related to the election year together create an environment in which the natural reaction of entrepreneurial decisions is to wait and see. The government has already reacted to the development of fuel prices, when a decision was made to reintroduce the price freeze and reduce excise duty on gasoline and diesel, which is a good indication that the issue of energy prices has once again become a factor of economic policy importance. 

Terminations are not increasing, the company trend is stabilizing 

In this situation, we could even talk about the stabilization of the company trend, at least if the We judge based on the number of terminations and court proceedings. According to OPTEN data, more than 5.6 thousand businesses ceased to exist in the first two months of 2026, which is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the number of new court proceedings also decreased by nearly 10 percent year-on-year. The corporate sector is therefore not collapsing, and in fact, after the wave of purges in previous years, the number of closures is actually decreasing. However, the number of companies continued to decline: by the end of February, the number of partnerships was about 2.1 thousand lower than at the beginning of the year, thus remaining below half a million. 

The real brake: the lack of new businesses 

However, the process below the surface shows something completely different. The engine of entrepreneurial activity, the number of new foundations, is spectacularly weak. In the first two months of the year, approximately 3.5 thousand new partnerships were started, which is one of the lowest values ​​in recent years. The development of the company trend is therefore not determined by the acceleration of exits, but by the lack of new entrants. 

The sectoral data also clearly show the process. For example, in the construction industry and real estate transactions, the number of new businesses is significantly lower than last year’s level. The largest number of company court proceedings continues to be concentrated in trade and the construction industry. The February figures therefore do not indicate a crisis, but caution. Businesses are not disappearing from the market en masse, but new companies are not being born either. 

And what can be expected in the future? 

During the energy crisis in 2022, the pattern was similar: uncertainty did not immediately appear in the number of closures, but primarily in the decline in new foundings. The high numbers of closures seen in 2023 rather reflected the accumulated effects from the previous Covid period. Businesses were able to partially incorporate the increase in energy prices into their prices, but the end of the moratoriums could no longer be handled. Entrepreneurs do not close en masse at this time, but wait, and this wait appears first in the company trend figures. 

“In the company trend, closures are always the consequences of previous economic decisions,Foundations, however, already reflect confidence in the future. Current data show that the corporate sector is stabilizing, but the emergence of new businesses remains subdued. As long as there is strong uncertainty in the economic environment, the desire to start a business will not significantly increase”

– said Csaba Alföldi, OPTEN’s company information expert. 

The Opten – Company Fluctuation Index (CFI – compares the number of companies cancelled and founded during the given period to those operating properly at the beginning of the period) nationally in February was 12.01%. At the county level, the highest fluctuation during the examined period was produced by Budapest, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén and Nógrád counties, while the Opten–CFI Csongrád-Csanád, Tolna and Veszprém reached the lowest values ​​in the counties.