The outlook continued to improve in October, with the GKI business climate index reaching a thirteen-month high

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 10. 22. 07:00

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According to a survey by GKI Economic Research Ltd. – conducted with the support of the EU – both the business sector and consumers expressed slightly more optimistic expectations in October than in September. The summary indicator of the outlook, the GKI business cycle index, rose by more than 1 point to a thirteen-month high. Companies’ willingness to employ improved slightly, while the overall expectation regarding the expected development of sales prices did not change compared to the previous month. The predictability of the business environment became noticeably more favorable.

October is the third consecutive month in which the GKI business confidence index increased compared to the previous month, reaching a thirteen-month high. Although the industrial and construction confidence indices barely changed compared to September, the trade index increased by 3 points and the service indicator by 2 points. The industrial index has not been this high for sixteen months, the trade index by thirteen, and the service index by twelve months. Regarding the near future, the construction industry remains the least optimistic sector, while business services are the most optimistic.

The employment indicator, which indicates the overall staffing expectations of enterprises, has improved slightly compared to the previous survey. In the next three months, 7% of enterprises are preparing to expand their workforce, while 12% would reduce it. The most optimistic sector is business services, where the proportion of those planning to expand their workforce slightly exceeds that of those preparing for layoffs.

The predictability of the business environment improved noticeably in all sectors in October. Industrial and construction companies suffer the most from the lack of predictability, while retail and service companies are less bothered by it.

The price indicator, which shows the expected development of companies’ selling prices in the next three months, did not change in October compared to the previous survey, after August and September. In the next three months, 19% of companies want to raise prices, while 8% are preparing to lower prices.

The GKI consumer confidence index was slightly higher in October, by more than 1 point, than in September, but this indicator still reached a fourteen-month high. The assessment of the financial situation experienced in the past 12 months has hardly changed, but the financial outlook for the next 12 months has noticeably improved compared to September. The assessment of the country’s expected economic situation in the next 12 months has not changed. The assessment of the amount of money that can be spent on high-value consumer goods has become more favorable than in the previous month. The population’s inflation expectations have decreased, while the outlook for the expected development of the number of unemployed has improved compared to the ninth month of the year.