OKSZ: retail dynamics remain weak, turnaround still awaited

According to KSH data, in November 2025, the volume of retail turnover exceeded the level of a year earlier by 2.5 percent, while it showed only a 0.1 percent increase compared to the previous month. According to the OKSZ, this dynamic continues to lag behind what income trends would justify.

The association pointed out that the increase in real earnings is not yet being reflected in household consumption in a meaningful way, which suggests that households remain cautious in their spending decisions. This is especially noteworthy in light of the fact that the consumer price index is expected to fall below 3 percent in the coming months, while the price index for cold foods may remain below 2 percent.

According to the OKSZ, the elimination of the margin cap at the end of February would be essential for a lasting recovery. The current regulation is holding back investments and developments that would be necessary for a meaningful boost in household consumption.

The association emphasized that business and infrastructure developments can only start in larger volumes if the commercial environment becomes more predictable and businesses are once again able to plan for the long term. Without this, retail growth may remain moderate, even in a more favorable inflation environment.