Not a turnaround, but consolidation: an agricultural outlook for 2026

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2026/02-03

It was repeatedly mentioned that after a long time there is finally winter precipitation and there is a realistic chance of replenishing soil moisture. However, the speakers were cautious in their statements: a better start to the year doesn’t in itself provide a solution, but at most an opportunity to take more conscious, planned steps in water management. Accordingly, the focus wasn’t solely on irrigation, but on the fundamental principle that without water security there can be no production security.

Agricultural prospects for 2026 will be shaped not by a return to growth, but by stabilisation and adaptation across the entire supply chain

The production structure is reorganised out of necessity

One of the fundamental points of the statements on the outlook for 2026 is that producers no longer expect a return to previous production patterns: adaptation has become part of everyday operations and its impact will also be reflected in the production structure in 2026. One of the most visible signs of this is the decline in corn acreage. While previously around one million hectares were typically planted, in 2025 corn was grown on approximately 750,000 hectares. Adaptation doesn’t stop at crop structure: cultivation methods, seed selection and solutions tailored to the growing location all influence the viability of farms. In this process the village agronomist network and related professional programmes provide practice-oriented support, so that farmers can introduce new solutions based on information rather than in isolation. One of the biggest challenges for 2026 isn’t on the production side, but in ensuring a secure, predictable market for the goods produced. The outlook for 2026 is clear for both processing and trade: depressed purchase prices may create good buying conditions in the short term, but in the long run they increase the risk of weakening the production side.

CAP funding and investments: the processing industry is planning for the longer term in 2026

Processing keeps the chain together

The role of the processing industry goes beyond that of a classic intermediate link: this is where adapting in production and selling on the market meet. If this relationship is disrupted, the impact is felt not only in the industry, but also directly on the production side and in retail supply. Interest in food industry investments remains strong. Processors are counting on the domestic raw material base in the longer term and are adjusting their capacities accordingly. At the same time, there is a significant risk that without a stable processing background the adaptation measures implemented on the production side won’t pay off. If processing cannot respond flexibly to changing raw material structures and volumes, sales pressures will be passed back to producers. Processing thus plays a key role not only in terms of technology, but also from the perspective of the market and organisation. NAK has recently launched several programmes to boost consumption, in order to strengthen demand for domestic vegetables, fruits, meat and dairy products.