A large wave of price increases is expected in trade

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 07. 17. 13:23

In the first half of 2025, GKI Economic Research Ltd. saw a general decrease in price increase intentions, but the commercial sector is an exception: here, pricing expectations seem to be rising again. According to the latest survey, 27% of companies are preparing to increase prices, while only 8% are planning to reduce prices – this indicates that strong inflationary pressure continues to prevail in the sector, according to Forbes’ analysis.

Margin freeze and special tax: the drivers of price increases

According to traders, government interventions – especially the margin freeze and special taxes – have resulted in a significant loss of revenue for them, which they are forced to partially pass on to customers. The situation is further complicated by the constantly increasing supplier prices: according to players in the sector, the price increases of fuels, food, chemicals and other basic product groups seem almost inevitable.

Cost spiral: wages, energy, supply chain

According to the GKI, the price increase intentions in the trade sector are mainly driven by cost-side factors: high energy prices, rising wage costs, uncertainty in global supply chains and rising tax burdens all contribute to the increase in the burden on businesses. All of these factors together explain why the sector is returning to the path of price increases, even with pricing expectations at an eight-month low.

Industry and construction: more subdued outlook

Although the willingness to increase prices is strengthening again in trade, other sectors are still more likely to wait and see. Expectations have eased in industry and business services, and businesses are more cautious. The construction industry is showing the exact opposite trend: due to the decline in state investments and the decline in housing construction and renovations, not only are prices stagnating here, but just as many – 14% – are planning price cuts as price increases.
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